Chair of Engineering Mechanics Ifm-publication 2-350 G. I. Schuëller. Past, Present and Future Simulation-based Structural Reliability Past, Present & Future of Simulation − − − − Based Structural Analysis

The Monte Carlo method – which based on the game of chance – was named after the famous Casino of Monte Carlo in Monaco. It was developed in the early fourtieth of the last century. For solving the so-called random neutron transport problems, i.e. diffusion in fissile materials. Already at an early stage of these investigations, the direct simulation was refined with certain variance – reducing techniques. About the same time the methods and theories of structural safety and reliability have been developed, and it was until the late sixtieth and early seventieth, respectively, until Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) techniques have been introduced to this field. First for simulating random variables, and random processes, later on for random fields. It took more than another decade until variance reduction techniques were applied in this area as well. Efficient MCS procedures were considerably advanced through the availability of digital, high-speed computer. Currently the MCS procedure is applied to various aspects of analysis, design of structures, such as uncertainty, reliability, safety and other types of analyses. It proves to be the most versatile tool in structural analysis when taking into account uncertainties in load, material and geometrical parameters. Future developments of MCS techniques will encompass their use within user friendly computer codes for analysis and design, mainly based on a modular basis for maintaining flexibility and parallel processing for reducing computational efforts.